Sucden and Raízen Assess Sugar and Ethanol Markets in Major Asian Producers

Experts from sugar trading giant Sucden and Brazilian energy company Raízen agree that India's sugar production still holds significant growth potential, primarily through enhancing productivity on existing farms rather than merely expanding cultivation areas. Ivan Melo Filho, Raízen's Commercial Director for Sugar, shared this perspective during an event held in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo. Ulysses Carvalho, a Senior Trader at Sucden, echoed this sentiment, adding: “Currently, sugarcane in India occupies approximately 6.2 to 6.3 million hectares. This represents only 3% of the country's 200 million hectares of arable land.” Carvalho noted that India's expected sugar production for the current cycle is just over 28 million tons, which is considered low by national standards. He attributed this to factors such as excessive rainfall and premature sugarcane flowering. Carvalho further elaborated, “The milling curve has been very accelerated, especially in Maharashtra. The state's area grew by 26% this harvest, but there was a significant setback in agricultural productivity, which is falling by about 2%.” He used this to explain the decline in overall volume. Despite this, he still anticipates that Maharashtra, one of the country's main sugarcane-producing states, will deliver a sugar volume “well superior” to expectations this year. Another relevant variable is sugarcane varieties. According to Carvalho, Uttar Pradesh is seeking to move away from historical cultivars and actively trying to find new solutions. Raízen's Commercial Director for Sugar also highlighted India's ethanol program, which aims to reduce reliance on sugar exports by converting sugarcane into ethanol, thereby stabilizing the domestic market and promoting energy independence.