Iran Conflict Exposes Vulneribility of Brazil's Corn, Sugar, and Meat Exports, Says Consultancy

The escalating conflict in the Middle East, compounded by the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe, disproportionately impacts Brazil's agribusiness export agenda, according to an analysis by Datagro consultancy. Corn, meats (especially chicken and beef), and sugar exhibit greater vulnerability, while soybeans, coffee, and orange juice are expected to experience limited effects. Among the most sensitive products, corn stands out as the primary risk factor. The Middle East has become a crucial destination, accounting for approximately 30% of Brazil's grain exports, with Iran being a significant importer. The consultancy warns that this high concentration in specific markets increases sensitivity to geopolitical disruptions, particularly because corn is an essential animal feed ingredient highly dependent on continuous logistics. In this context, tensions involving the Persian Gulf could result in “increased logistics costs, operational restrictions, and even purchase delays, potentially leading to domestic oversupply in the second half of the year and some pressure on domestic prices in Brazil.” The vulnerability in the protein segment is also significant, albeit with nuances. For beef, about 10% of Brazil's 2025 shipments were destined for conflict regions, primarily the Middle East and Russia. Beyond direct exposure, Datagro highlights indirect risks such as rising freight and marine insurance costs. For poultry meats, the reliance on the Middle Eastern market is even more pronounced.