Thai Sugar Output Forecast Slashed Amid Adverse Weather

Thailand, a significant global sugar exporter, is bracing for a challenging 2025/2026 sugarcane season, with initial production forecasts now revised downwards. The Thai Cane and Sugar Corporation (TCSC) announced today that the total sugarcane crushing volume is expected to be around 85-90 million tonnes, a substantial reduction from earlier projections exceeding 100 million tonnes. This downgrade is primarily attributed to a prolonged period of below-average rainfall during critical growth stages in 2025, followed by localized flooding in some regions that adversely affected cane quality. The impact of these unfavorable weather events is anticipated to result in lower sugar yields per tonne of cane, further exacerbating supply concerns. Industry experts believe that Thailand's sugar exports for the upcoming marketing year could experience a significant drop, potentially tightening the Asian market and increasing reliance on other origins. Local millers are already adjusting their operational plans, focusing on maximizing efficiency to mitigate the effects of reduced raw material availability. The Thai government is also exploring measures to support farmers and ensure the long-term sustainability of the sugar sector amidst increasing climate variability. This development underscores the vulnerability of global sugar supply chains to climate change and highlights the critical need for diversified sourcing strategies.