Agroicone: Brazilian Off-Season Corn Ethanol Boosts SAF and Reduces Environmental Impact

A recent study, published in Agricultural Economics by Agroicone in partnership with international researchers, indicates that the expansion of ethanol production from off-season corn in Brazil can pave a significant path for the advancement of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), while simultaneously limiting land-use change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The research thoroughly analyzes the impacts of increased demand for corn ethanol in Brazil, partly driven by the growing SAF market, on global agricultural markets, land use, and carbon emissions. To assess these impacts, the study utilized a global economic model combined with a framework for accounting for land-use associated emissions, evaluating different scenarios of productive expansion. The results suggest that when corn production grows through a double-cropping system—where the cereal is cultivated after soybeans on the same area and within the same agricultural year—the increase in ethanol supply primarily stems from productive intensification, rather than the opening of new areas. This model significantly reduces deforestation pressure compared to scenarios based on territorial expansion. Currently, off-season corn already accounts for the majority of the national grain production and has been decisive in increasing supply without a proportional growth in planted area.