China Sugar Market Outlook: Significant Production Increase Expected for 2025/26, Global Supply Remains Loose

China's sugar market is poised for significant growth in the 2025/26 season. According to the latest analysis, while the 2024/25 China sugar supply and demand balance sheet remains unchanged this month, the forecast for 2025/26 sugar production has been substantially raised by 800,000 tons, reaching 12.5 million tons. This optimistic outlook is primarily due to excellent sugarcane growth in major producing areas like Guangxi and Yunnan, coupled with historically high sugar yields, leading to production volumes exceeding expectations. As of the end of March, production progress in China's key sugar-producing regions shows that Guangxi has accumulated 7.407 million tons of sugar, while Yunnan has produced 2.134 million tons. In terms of overall production pace, northern beet sugar mills have completed their crushing season. In the southern sugarcane-producing regions, Guangxi has entered its final crushing phase, and Yunnan's production is expected to continue until the end of May, concluding the current season. On the international front, the global sugar supply and demand landscape is projected to remain loose. Major sugar-producing countries such as Brazil, India, and Thailand are generally expected to increase their output in the 2025/26 season. Despite ample international supply, future sugar prices and market trends will require close monitoring of several uncertain factors. These include geopolitical developments in the Middle East, fluctuations in the global crude oil market, and changes in the proportion of sugarcane allocated for sugar production in Brazil for the 2026/27 season, all of which could have profound impacts on both international and domestic sugar markets.