USDA Forecasts 26% Decrease in US Sugar Imports for 2025/26

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released new projections indicating a significant 26% reduction in sugar imports for the 2025/26 marketing year, which commenced in October of last year, compared to the previous year. The estimated import volume for the current marketing year is set at 2.512 million tons, a notable decrease from the 3.393 million tons imported in the preceding period. This anticipated decline in imports is primarily attributed to tariffs imposed on sugar-producing countries, particularly Brazil. A 50% surcharge was levied on Brazilian sugar during the peak harvest season in its North-Northeast region, which typically supplies the American market, significantly impacting trade flows. Reductions are expected across both in-quota and out-of-quota sugar imports. Specifically, in-quota sugar imports are projected to fall by 14.2% to 1.316 million tons. Out-of-quota imports are forecast to experience an even sharper decline of 39.7%, reaching 896,000 tons. The tariff for out-of-quota sugar imports stands at 33.87 cents per kilogram of raw sugar, while in-quota imports benefit from a much lower tariff of 1.4606 cents per kilogram. Although Brazil benefits from a reduced-tariff quota, its sugar exports to the United States this marketing year were affected by an additional tariff imposed by the Donald Trump administration, which was eventually overturned by the US Supreme Court in February. This decrease in foreign sugar supply, coupled with the fact that domestic sugar production in the United States does not fully meet demand, is expected to tighten the country's internal sugar availability.