Brazil's 2025/26 Sugarcane Production Forecast at 673.2 Million Tons, Ethanol Output Reaches Record High

Brazil's sugarcane production for the 2025/26 crop year is estimated at 673.2 million tons, representing a 0.5% reduction compared to the previous season. This projection comes from the 4th Sugarcane Crop Survey for the 2025/2026 cycle, released on Friday, May 17th, by the National Supply Company (Conab). Despite the slight decrease in sugarcane volume, the report highlights that the country is poised for its highest-ever ethanol production and the second-highest sugar output in Conab's historical series. The survey data also indicates that this will be the third-largest sugarcane harvest on record, trailing only the 2022/23 and 2024/25 seasons. According to Conab's assessment, combining both sugarcane and corn as raw materials, total ethanol production is expected to reach 37.5 billion liters, an increase of 0.8% over the last crop year. This rise is primarily influenced by a significant boost in corn ethanol production. Specifically, corn-based ethanol output is projected to hit 10.17 billion liters, marking a substantial 29.8% increase from the previous season and accounting for just over 27% of the total fuel production. In contrast, ethanol produced from sugarcane is estimated at 27.33 billion liters, a 6.9% reduction compared to the 2024/25 cycle. Meanwhile, sugar manufacturing is estimated at 44.2 million tons, a marginal increase of 0.1% from the prior crop. The report notes that the reduced availability of raw material (sugarcane) initially limited the potential for a larger increase in sweetener production.