Wheat/CEPEA: Six-Year Low Production Sustains Domestic Prices
According to CEPEA, the anticipated decline in Brazil's 2026 national wheat production, potentially reaching its lowest level since 2020, is providing strong support for domestic wheat prices. Despite an upward revision in Minas Gerais's planted area, a significant reduction in Rio Grande do Sul's forecast means the national output is expected to be 16% lower than the previous season, totaling 6.6 million tons.
University of São Paulo Research Center
Wheat/CEPEA: Six-Year Low Production Sustains Domestic Prices
According to CEPEA (Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics) on April 22, 2026, the prospect of a significant drop in Brazil's national wheat production in 2026, potentially reaching its lowest volume since 2020, has been providing strong support for domestic cereal prices. This month, Conab (National Supply Company) revised its supply and demand data for the 2026 season. Despite an increase in the estimated area for Minas Gerais, the projection for Rio Grande do Sul was significantly reduced.
As a result, the national area dedicated to wheat cultivation is expected to total 2.22 million hectares, representing a 9.2% decrease compared to 2025. The average productivity is estimated at 2,979 kg/ha, a 7.5% reduction. This leads to an anticipated production of 6.6 million tons, which is 16% lower than the previous harvest – a reduction of over 1.2 million tons.