StoneX Forecasts Global Sugar Deficit in 2026/27, Signaling Structural Shift

The global sugar market is projected to enter a deficit in the 2026/27 crop year (October to September), with an estimated negative balance of approximately 550,000 tonnes, according to the initial forecast from StoneX consultancy for the upcoming cycle. The company highlights that this figure represents a "significant inflection point" after two years of surplus, signaling a scenario of greater structural tightening driven by a combination of climate risks, reduced planted areas, and shifts in international trade flows. "In this first reading for 2026/27, we have already identified a deficit of approximately 550,000 tonnes in the global sugar balance, which significantly alters the market dynamics compared to previous cycles," stated Marcelo Di Bonifácio Filho, StoneX's market intelligence analyst. He added, "This movement occurs even with growth in Brazilian production and reflects significant losses in supply from other key regions." One of the primary drivers of the projected deficit, according to the consultancy, is the European Union. Sugar beet production in the EU is expected to decline significantly in 2026/27. StoneX estimates a 6.1% reduction in cultivated area across the EU-27, reflecting lower crop profitability due to reduced international prices in recent years and increasing phytosanitary risks. Consequently, the bloc's production, combined with that of the United Kingdom, is forecast to drop to 15.3 million tonnes, representing an annual decrease of 12.5%. This decline in production is likely to lead to Europe becoming a net importer of sugar once again.