ISO Predicts Global Sugar Market Deficit in 2026/27

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) anticipates the global sugar market will face a deficit of 262,000 tonnes in the 2026/27 season (October to September), marking its initial forecast for the upcoming period. The intergovernmental body noted the escalating risk associated with the impending El Niño climate phenomenon, stating in a quarterly update on Monday, the 18th, that its deficit projection was largely driven by an expected 2 million tonne decline in production. Concurrently, ISO raised its estimate for the global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season to 2.244 million metric tonnes, up from the previously projected 1.22 million tonnes. “The outlook for prices over the next three months is neutral, as the 2025/26 surplus is modest. Meanwhile, inventory building, driven by concerns over reduced fertilizer use and increased hedging, may support prices,” the organization commented. Regarding ethanol, which can be produced from sugarcane or corn, ISO expects 2026 production to increase from 123.1 billion to 129.4 billion liters, thanks to a recovery in Brazilian output and expansion in India. It forecasts ethanol consumption to rise from 122.9 billion to 126.9 billion liters in 2026 – still slightly below production levels. “The rise in oil prices in the wake of the Persian Gulf conflict has boosted demand for biofuels: several countries have introduced or expanded…” (Note: The original content ends abruptly at “expanded…”, indicating the conclusion of the source text.)