Global Sugar Consumption Growth to Concentrate in Emerging Markets

In the coming years, the growth in global sugar consumption is expected to increasingly concentrate in emerging economies. Developed countries will face structurally weaker demand, primarily due to demographic stagnation, shifts in consumer preferences, and intensifying health-related policies. This is a key finding from a study by Hedgepoint Global Markets. The consultancy bases its analysis on data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), detailing the anticipated behavior of global consumption. The FAO projects an annual growth rate of 1.2% in global sugar consumption, reaching approximately 202 million tons by 2034. The UN anticipates that in the coming years, demand growth will be concentrated in low- and middle-income regions, particularly Asia and Africa, which together are expected to account for about 93% of the net gains in global consumption. Population growth, accelerated urbanization, and dietary changes driven by increased purchasing power are the main factors behind this trend. Conversely, high-income economies are likely to maintain generally stable or moderately declining sugar consumption. Hedgepoint notes in its report that "sugar consumption increases rapidly at lower income levels but gradually stabilizes as countries reach higher GDP thresholds, where demand becomes increasingly inelastic to new income gains." The consultancy emphasizes that this saturation effect is evident in economies.