Wheat/CEPEA: Production Forecast to Decline in 2026/27
According to the CEPEA research center at the University of São Paulo, both global and Brazilian wheat production are projected to decrease in the 2026/27 crop year. USDA data indicates a potential 2.9% drop in global output, with ending stocks forecast to fall by 1.5%. Brazil is also expected to see reduced supply due to decreased cultivated area and productivity.
The CEPEA research center at the University of São Paulo reported on May 19, 2026, that both global and Brazilian wheat production are anticipated to decline in the 2026/27 crop season. According to data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global production is projected to decrease by 2.9% compared to the 2025/26 season, while carryover stocks could fall by 1.5%.
For Brazil, USDA estimates also indicate a reduced supply, primarily due to a decrease in cultivated area and lower productivity. Global consumption of wheat is forecast to remain stable at approximately 823.23 million tons, showing a marginal decrease of 0.04% from the previous season. However, global ending stocks are expected to decline by 1.5%, pushing the stock-to-use ratio down to 33.4%.
Furthermore, according to the National Company for Food Supply (Conab), Brazil's wheat production for 2026 has been revised to 6.38 million tons, marking an 18.9% reduction from the 2025 harvest. This significant decrease primarily reflects the smaller area planted and other contributing factors.