Cepea: Increased Supply and Weak Liquidity Pressure Crystal Sugar Prices Down

The spot market for crystal sugar in São Paulo, Brazil, is currently experiencing sluggish activity and declining prices, as reported by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) at Esalq-USP. As of Friday, the Cepea/Esalq Crystal Sugar Indicator, for Icumsa 130 to 180, stood at R$93 per bag. This represents a 0.6% drop from the previous week's closing price of R$93.56 per bag, and a cumulative monthly decline of 5%. Cepea noted that buyers generally remain withdrawn from the market, anticipating further price reductions as the 2026/27 harvest progresses and supply increases. Researchers highlighted that data released last week by the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica) “reinforces the expectation of a robust 2026/27 harvest in Brazil’s Center-South region, a factor that continues to contribute to abundant supply and pressure domestic values.” On the international front, raw sugar prices traded on the New York Stock Exchange (ICE Futures) also retreated last week. This decline primarily reflects the significant advancement in production within Brazil's Center-South region. Mills in this area have produced a cumulative 2.475 million tons of sugar in the 2026/27 harvest (up to May 1st), marking a substantial 55.3% increase compared to the same period in the previous season (2025/26). However, researchers added, “Conversely, raw sugar futures found support from concerns related to climate and the potential impacts of El Niño.”