Survey of 12 Firms Forecasts 3 Million Ton Sugar Surplus for 2025/26

A survey conducted by NovaCana in May, involving 12 companies, predicts a global sugar surplus of 2.97 million tons for the 2025/26 season (October to September). Despite mixed individual forecasts, the overall consensus points to global production exceeding consumption. Asian sugar-producing nations are expected to show favorable results for the 2025/26 season. According to StoneX data, as the crushing season concludes in some countries, India, China, Thailand, and Pakistan are anticipated to finish the cycle with increased volumes compared to 2024/25. Mexico is also projected to see an increase. Conversely, Brazil, the United States, and the European Union are expected to experience reductions in their sugar output. The forecasts from the surveyed companies varied significantly, ranging from a deficit of 1 million tons, estimated by BTG Pactual (the only company predicting a deficit), to a substantial surplus of 11.2 million tons, as projected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This marks the third survey conducted by the portal for this cycle. In May of the previous year, the average forecast was a surplus of 2.66 million tons, which then rose to 3.73 million tons by October. Furthermore, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) has revised its surplus outlook upwards. Between its February and May reports, the organization increased its surplus projection from 1 million tons to 2.24 million tons. The ISO anticipates increased production from Pakistan, Thailand, and India, reinforcing the expectation of a well-supplied global sugar market.