CEPEA Coffee Report: Arabica Prices Decline in May Due to Harvest Pressure

According to a report from CEPEA, a research center at the University of São Paulo (USP), Arabica coffee prices experienced a sharp decline in May 2026. The monthly average price, in real terms, reached its lowest point since October 2004. Researchers at CEPEA attributed this significant downward pressure to the progression of Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest, which is widely expected to yield a record-breaking production. Specifically, the CEPEA/ESALQ indicator for Arabica coffee (type 6, hard to better cup, delivered in São Paulo) registered an average price of R$ 1,653.92 per 60 kg bag in May. This represents a decrease of R$ 157.95, or 8.7%, compared to April's average of R$ 1,811.87. When adjusted for inflation using the IGP-DI index for April 2026, this marks the lowest monthly average since October 2024, when it stood at R$ 1,490.14 per bag. Throughout May, the indicator consistently reflected the market's strong reaction to the anticipated bumper harvest.