Swine/CEPEA: Live Hog Average Price Lowest Since July 2012

The Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA) at the University of São Paulo reported that live hog and pork prices continued their downward trend for the third consecutive month in May 2026. This sustained decline is primarily attributed to persistent weakness in both domestic and international market demand. Specifically, the average real price for live hogs traded in the São Paulo state (SP-5) market, deflated by the IGP-DI index of April 2026, has fallen to its lowest point since July 2012, marking a significant low in CEPEA's historical data series. Although demand for pork saw a brief improvement around Mother's Day (May 10th), a period that traditionally boosts meat purchases and, consequently, live animal demand, this recovery was short-lived. Demand subsequently dropped again in the following weeks, leading to further consecutive price reductions. Furthermore, external trade data corroborates the subdued demand scenario. According to figures from Brazil's Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), exports experienced a 15% decrease, which undoubtedly exacerbated the supply pressure and downward price trend in the domestic market.