China Sugar Market Outlook: 2026 Supply and Demand Analysis and Global Trends
Latest assessments indicate a stable sugar supply and demand outlook for China in the 2025/26 season, with major producing regions concluding crushing. Domestic sugarcane production conditions for 2026/27 are favorable. Globally, the International Sugar Organization forecasts a 260,000-ton deficit for 2026/27, highlighting the need to monitor El Niño's impact on key sugar-producing nations.
This month's assessment of China's sugar market indicates that the supply and demand situation for the 2025/26 season remains consistent with previous estimates, showing no significant changes. As of the end of May, the national sugar production season is nearing completion, with crushing operations in major sugar-producing provinces such as Guangxi and Guangdong having concluded entirely. Over the next month, we will make precise adjustments to the total sugar output for the 2025/26 season based on final production data.
Looking ahead to the 2026/27 season, the forecast for domestic sugar supply and demand also aligns with last month's projections. Currently, favorable climatic conditions prevail in China's main sugarcane-producing regions, providing an advantageous environment for the growth of sugarcane and other sugar crops, signaling a healthy production outlook.
On the international front, the global sugar landscape is facing new challenges. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has released its latest forecast, anticipating a global sugar supply deficit of approximately 260,000 tons for the 2026/27 season. This projection underscores the potential for a tight global sugar market. Moving forward, market participants and policymakers must continuously monitor the potential impact of El Niño events on sugarcane crop yields in major sugar-producing countries like Brazil and India, as this will be crucial for the stability of global sugar supplies.