Global Sugar Prices Rise Amid Persistent Supply Concerns from Brazil and India

London, UK – February 10, 2026 – Global sugar prices have shown a modest but steady increase over the past week, primarily driven by ongoing supply uncertainties from key producing nations, Brazil and India. Traders are closely monitoring the developing El Niño weather patterns, which continue to impact sugarcane harvests in South America. Brazil, the world's largest sugar exporter, is experiencing a slower-than-anticipated start to its 2026/27 crushing season. Initial reports suggest a potential downward revision in output forecasts due to adverse weather conditions affecting cane development. Industry analysts at Sucden Financial project a global sugar deficit for the upcoming marketing year if current trends persist. Meanwhile, India's sugar production outlook remains a significant factor. Despite earlier optimistic projections, recent data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) indicates that cumulative production for the current season is slightly trailing last year's figures, primarily due to lower yields in Maharashtra and Karnataka. While the Indian government has not yet announced any changes to its export policy, the domestic supply situation is being watched carefully, with any potential restrictions on exports likely to send ripples through the international market. The March 2026 ICE No. 11 raw sugar futures contract closed yesterday at 21.85 cents per pound, up 0.45 cents, reflecting the market's cautious sentiment. Analysts suggest that unless significant improvements in weather conditions or policy clarity emerge, price volatility is likely to continue in the near term.