Thailand's Sugar Output Forecast Cut for 2025/26 Season Amid Severe Drought

Bangkok, Thailand – February 10, 2026 – Thailand's Office of the Cane and Sugar Board (OCSB) has announced a revised, lower forecast for the country's sugar production for the 2025/26 crushing season. The agency cited prolonged drought conditions that have severely impacted sugarcane yields. Initial estimates of 10.5 million metric tons of sugar have been cut by approximately 8-10%, now projecting output closer to 9.5-9.7 million metric tons. This reduction marks the second consecutive season of declining output for the world's second-largest sugar exporter, following a challenging 2024/25 season. The drought, exacerbated by irregular rainfall patterns, has led to a significant decrease in cane availability for mills and a reduction in sucrose content per ton of cane. Farmers in key growing regions, including Nakhon Sawan and Khon Kaen, have reported substantial crop losses. This downward revision from Thailand is expected to further tighten global supply, particularly in the Asian market, and could provide additional upward pressure on international sugar prices. Major importers like Indonesia, Malaysia, and South Korea, which rely heavily on Thai sugar, are now exploring alternative sourcing options. The Thai Sugar Millers Corporation (TSMC) has indicated that domestic consumption will be prioritized, potentially limiting export availability further. The situation underscores the increasing vulnerability of agricultural commodities to climate change and extreme weather events.