Global Sugar Prices Rise Amid Persistent Supply Concerns

London, UK – February 10, 2026 – Global sugar prices have shown a slight upward trend this week, with the ICE No. 11 raw sugar futures contract for March delivery closing at 22.85 cents per pound, up 0.7% from last week's close. This increase is primarily driven by ongoing concerns regarding supply shortfalls from major producing regions. Brazil, the world's largest sugar exporter, continues to face challenges with its upcoming harvest. Earlier-than-expected rains in some cane-growing areas have disrupted field operations and raised questions about cane quality and sucrose content. Concurrently, Thailand's sugar output for the 2025/26 season is projected to be lower than initial estimates, with industry analysts now forecasting production at around 10.5 million metric tons, down from 11.2 million metric tons. This revision is attributed to a combination of dry weather conditions earlier in the growing cycle and a shift in some cultivation towards alternative, more profitable crops. The market is closely watching India, where export policies remain a key determinant of global supply. While domestic consumption is stable, any further restrictions on exports could significantly tighten the international market. Traders are also monitoring currency fluctuations, particularly the Brazilian Real against the US Dollar, which can influence export competitiveness. The current sentiment suggests that prices may remain elevated in the short to medium term unless significant positive supply news emerges from these key regions.