Global Sugar Prices Rise on Indian Export Uncertainty, Thai Production Dip

Global raw sugar futures (SBc1) on ICE Futures US have seen a modest uptick this week, trading around 21.50 cents per pound, as market participants continue to assess supply-side risks. A primary driver of this renewed bullish sentiment is the persistent uncertainty surrounding India's export policy for the 2025/26 marketing year. While initial estimates suggested a potential for limited exports, recent reports from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) indicate a slight downward revision in domestic production forecasts due to erratic monsoon patterns in key growing regions like Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. This has led to speculation that the Indian government may maintain its restrictive export stance to prioritize domestic availability and manage food inflation, thereby tightening global supplies. Adding to the supply concerns, Thailand, the world's second-largest sugar exporter, has reported a significant year-on-year decline in sugarcane crushing for the current season. As of late January 2026, sugar production is estimated to be down by approximately 15% compared to the same period last year, primarily attributed to prolonged drought conditions impacting cane yields. This reduction in Thai output, coupled with the Indian export ambiguity, is creating a supply deficit narrative that is supporting current price levels. Traders are closely monitoring weather patterns in Brazil, the largest producer, where the upcoming harvest will be crucial in determining the overall balance of the global sugar market for the remainder of 2026.