Global Sugar Prices Rise on Brazil, India Supply Worries

Global sugar futures saw a modest increase this week, with ICE raw sugar (SBc1) trading at 21.5 cents per pound, reflecting persistent concerns over supply in key producing nations. Analysts point to a combination of factors, including revised production forecasts for Brazil and ongoing export policy uncertainty in India. Brazil's CONAB recently updated its sugar output projections for the 2025/26 season, indicating a potential slight reduction due to unfavorable weather patterns affecting cane development in the Center-South region. Meanwhile, India, the world's second-largest producer, continues to maintain a cautious stance on additional sugar exports, prioritizing domestic availability ahead of the upcoming festival season. This conservative approach, coupled with a robust domestic demand outlook, is limiting the availability of Indian sugar on the international market. Traders are closely monitoring weather developments in both regions, as well as any policy shifts from New Delhi, which could significantly impact global supply-demand dynamics in the coming months. The market remains sensitive to any news that could further tighten the balance sheet, with many expecting prices to hold firm or even rise further if supply issues persist into the second quarter of 2026.