Coffee/CEPEA: 2026/27 Crop Benefits from Rainfall

Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop is significantly benefiting from ample rainfall in February, particularly in Arabica growing regions, according to CEPEA. Market participants are optimistic about this season's output, anticipating it could exceed 60 million bags for the first time since the 2020/21 crop, potentially setting a new record.

According to the latest report from the University of São Paulo's research center (CEPEA), climatic conditions throughout February 2026 have significantly contributed to the development of Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop. Rainfall in Arabica coffee growing areas has been substantial and beneficial for crop growth. Against this backdrop, agents consulted by CEPEA maintain positive expectations for the current season's output. Industry experts anticipate that this year's total Brazilian coffee production, combining both Arabica and Robusta varieties, could surpass the 60 million bag (60 kg per bag) mark for the first time since the 2020/21 crop, potentially setting a new record. Data from Inmet (National Institute of Meteorology) indicates that Marília municipality (central São Paulo state) recorded 154.5 millimeters of rain in February. The highest accumulations occurred in Mogiana Paulista, Cerrado Mineiro, and Sul de Minas, all key coffee-producing regions. In Robusta coffee producing areas, where harvesting has already commenced, the rainfall has also had a positive impact on crop development.