Brazil's Center-South Ethanol Stocks Decline Accelerates in First Half of February

Despite the anticipated resumption of sugarcane crushing, ethanol inventories in Brazil's Center-South region continue to shrink. As of February 16, stocks stood at 4.21 billion liters, a 24.1% decrease year-on-year and an 18.1% drop compared to the previous fortnight. With demand heating up, ethanol prices are expected to rise. This decline, while expected, has accelerated beyond previous observations.

Despite the upcoming resumption of sugarcane crushing activities in Brazil's Center-South region, ethanol inventories in this area continue to contract. In a scenario of increasing market demand, this declining stock trend suggests a likely increase in ethanol prices. According to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa) this Tuesday, as of February 16, producers held a total of 4.21 billion liters of biofuel ethanol in stock. This figure represents a 24.1% decrease compared to the same date in 2025. When compared fortnightly, the inventory dropped by 18.1%, or 932.61 million liters. The reduction in ethanol stocks was anticipated, as the sugarcane crushing period in the Center-South region is drawing to a close, naturally leading to lower inventory volumes. However, it is noteworthy that the pace of decline in the first half of February accelerated compared to what was observed in the second half of January.